Here, I write about real-life data-driven decision-making under uncertainty and how to live a good life.
There is no shortage of takes on decision-making in the popular sphere, such as from the social psychology perspectives (see book 1, book 2). While I appreciate reading those authors’ painstaking efforts to back up the arguments with empirical data, I often felt something missing. The statistical associations from typical studies are, at most, statistical associations. Yet, decision-making uncertainty requires us to understand the model and dynamics of the world. Furthermore, there does not seem to be a practical system for decision-making as a means to a good life rooted in sound logic. For those who are mathematically minded, statements like if you do X, you will be 15% happier are certainly cringeworthy.